Hryvnia - a sure way to preserve capital
ON MAY INVESTIDEI by Ilya PORKALOVA, asset manager of AMC "Dragon Asset Management"
April added nervousness in the financial markets. At the beginning of the month - the negative data on China's GDP. It is only natural that investors are closely monitoring any data from China, as it is the largest consumer of raw materials. And the negative data on the dynamics of the GDP of the country provoked a substantial decline in metal prices, oil and so on. Then the flames poured reports of American companies for the first quarter.
But especially I got gold.
After the publication of data on China once in a couple of the most active trading hours on the exchange someone sold about 400 tons of gold -. About $ 20 billion pressed through these sales price below the two-year low, and further reduction of the avalanche rolled. The panic continued and the next day - gold has lost another 10% in price. For whatever reason, and who dramatically took to sell a quantity of gold, still remains a mystery.
I do not think that should not rush to buy gold, despite the attractive prices. Firstly, it is quite a specific tool, which is difficult in a rational way to lay down some fair price. The price of gold is too dependent on the mood of investors, and can therefore vary within a very wide range. This collapse has weakened the faith of market participants in the rise in prices. Moreover, there are objective reasons to expect further slowdown in China's economy.
When seemingly strong economic growth of 7.7%, which shows the official statistics, the fear caused debts of local Chinese authorities, as well as companies and households, which grow about three times faster. This may indicate a late stage of a credit bubble. A significant portion of the loans issued in China through the "gray" schemes, which means that in any statistics are not displayed. Doubt itself the official figure of GDP growth of 7.7%, as indirect evidence, such as electricity consumption, the volume of rail transportation, the production of various types of goods and so forth. Talk about a much more modest results.
Shares of enterprises in developing countries is also not too pleasing investors. And if before the mansion was the US market, storming highs, then the April reporting companies in the US for the first quarter was a worse than expected.
Despite the low price, the Ukrainian shares continue to show a fall in prices, the same applies to the activity in the market.
It can be assumed life in the Ukrainian market will breathe admission to trading of domestic shares of the Ukrainian issuers that are traded on international exchanges. Maybe it will happen later this year that will be a powerful impetus to the development of the market and higher prices for the most liquid shares.
In this time of global uncertainty with respect to the high hryvnia deposit rates are still very interesting, given the likely stability of the hryvnia exchange rate in the coming months and low inflation. I think all rational next month to keep most of its portfolio in the hryvnia deposit. And wait for the optimal moment to build up investments in riskier assets, including stocks and gold.