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Overview of September 2020

Краткий обзор событий за Сентябрь 2020
Indeks S&P 500 skorrektirovalsya v sentyabre na 4%. No v tselom za 3 kvartala rezul'tat osnovnykh fondovykh indeksov ochen' neplokh kak dlya pandemii i global'noy retsessii. Aziatskiye indeksy vyrosli na primerno 10% s nachala goda, v osnovnom blagodarya otnositel'no bol'shemu uspekhu Kitaya i drugikh aziatskikh stran v bor'be s virusom. Yevropeyskiye aktsii v minuse s nachala goda primerno na 7%. Amerikanskiye indeksy vyrosli primerno na 5% s nachala goda blagodarya bystromu i masshtabnomu stimulirovaniyu ot FRS i prikhodu na fondovyy rynok millionov novykh igrokov, v chastnosti blagodarya rostu populyarnosti prostykh prilozheniy dlya torgovli aktsiyami s mobil'nogo telefona, takikh kak Robin hood. Vprochem, rost populyarnosti fondovykh rynkov i, prezhde vsego, investitsiy v rastushchiye tekhnologicheskiye kompanii - eto ne tol'ko amerikanskoye yavleniye, a i global'noye. I v Yevrope i osobenno v Azii nablyudayetsya ta zhe tendentsiya. Pri etom vsem prakticheski vo vsekh regionakh mira situatsiya s koronavirusom za posledniy mesyats ukhudshilas' i chetko nablyudayetsya vtoraya volna. Chastichno rost novykh keysov po vsemu miru mozhno ob"yasnit' rostom vozmozhnostey po testirovaniyu, i, khotya novyye keysy davno pobili vesenniye rekordy, smertnost' v bol'shinstve mest ostavalas' sushchestvenno nizhe vesennikh maksimumov, i ekonomika pokazyvala luchshiy rezul'tat, chem mnogiye analitiki ozhidali vesnoy i letom. Odnako iz-za sil'nogo rosta smertnosti v Yevrope, i osobenno v Ukraine, vlasti mnogikh stran mogut snova vstat' pered neobkhodimost'yu uzhestochat' karantinnyye ogranicheniya s sootvetstvuyushchimi negativnymi ekonomicheskimi posledstviyami. Ukrainskaya ekonomika neplokho vosstanavlivalas' posle vesennego karantinnogo obvala i v posledneye vremya analitiki uluchshili otsenki padeniya VVP v etom godu s -8 - -9% vesnoy do primerno -4%. My uzhe kommentirovali, chto budushcheye ukrainskoy ekonomiki ne tak uzh i raduzhno i nekotoryye posledniye resheniya ukrainskikh vlastey mogut byt' vosprinyaty inostrannymi partnerami kak otkat reform v voprosakh pravookhranitel'noy i sudebnoy sistemy, nezavisimosti natsional'nogo banka i prochego, chto mozhet ochen' bystro privesti k pauze v sotrudnichestve s MVF. Vtoraya volna virusa v etoy kartine odnoznachno ne dobavlyayet optimizma. Vesnoy-letom tsifry po virusu u nas byli nastol'ko luchshe, chem vo mnogikh drugikh stranakh, chto Ukraina vmesto uvelicheniya kolichestva koyek dlya bol'nykh i uluchsheniya ikh tekhnicheskogo osnashcheniya, uvelicheniya moshchnostey po testirovaniyu i opredeleniyu kontaktov zarazhennykh potratila den'gi v osnovnom na dorogi i potrebnosti MVD. Teper' sushchestvenno rastet veroyatnost' togo, chto potrebnost' ukraintsev v koykakh prevysit vozmozhnosti sistemy zdravookhraneniya, pravitel'stvo budet vynuzhdeno snova vvodit' karantinnyye ogranicheniya, ot chego postradayet ekonomika i dokhody byudzheta. Sootvetstvenno, u pravitel'stva vozrastet potrebnost' v finansirovanii imenno kogda novyye den'gi negde poluchit'. V takikh usloviyakh optimisticheskiye prognozy polozhitel'nogo rosta VVP uzhe v sleduyushchem godu mogut okazat'sya nesbytochnymi, a politicheskaya sistema mozhet zayti ocherednoy krizis. Развернуть 3015/5000 The S&P 500 index corrected by 4% in September. But in general, for 3 quarters, the result of the main stock indices is very good for both the pandemic and the global recession. Asian indices are up about 10% since the start of the year, largely thanks to the relatively greater success of China and other Asian countries in fighting the virus. European equities are down about 7% YTD. US indices are up roughly 5% YTD thanks to rapid and massive stimulus from the Fed and millions of new entrants to the stock market, in particular due to the rise in popularity of simple mobile stock trading apps like Robin hood. However, the growing popularity of stock markets and, above all, investments in growing tech companies is not only an American phenomenon, but also a global one. And in Europe and especially in Asia, the same trend is observed. At the same time, in almost all regions of the world, the situation with coronavirus has worsened over the past month, and a second wave is clearly observed. Part of the rise in new cases around the world can be attributed to increased testing opportunities, and while new cases have long broken spring records, mortality rates in most places remained well below spring highs, and the economy performed better than many analysts expected in the spring and summer. However, due to the strong growth in mortality in Europe, and especially in Ukraine, the authorities of many countries may again face the need to tighten quarantine restrictions with corresponding negative economic consequences.

The Ukrainian economy has been recovering well after the spring quarantine collapse, and recently analysts have improved their estimates of the fall in GDP this year from -8-9% in the spring to about -4%. We have already commented that the future of the Ukrainian economy is not so rosy and some of the latest decisions of the Ukrainian authorities can be perceived by foreign partners as a rollback of reforms in the law enforcement and judicial system, the independence of the national bank, etc., which can very quickly lead to a pause in cooperation with IMF. The second wave of the virus in this picture definitely does not add optimism. In the spring and summer, the numbers on the virus were so much better than in many other countries that Ukraine, instead of increasing the number of beds for patients and improving their technical equipment, increasing testing capacity and identifying contacts of infected people, spent money mainly on roads and the needs of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Now the likelihood that the need of Ukrainians for beds will exceed the capacity of the healthcare system is significantly increasing, the government will be forced to reintroduce quarantine restrictions, which will affect the economy and budget revenues. Accordingly, the government's need for funding will increase precisely when there is nowhere to get new money. In such conditions, optimistic forecasts of positive GDP growth as early as next year may turn out to be unrealizable, and the political system may enter another crisis.

Funds under management

Funds under management

Argentum

PIC*

10.26 uah.

+0 %

NAV*

227 473 uah.

+0 %

Platinum

PIC*

428.15 uah.

+0 %

NAV*

9 301 599 uah.

-799.31 %

Aurum

PIC*

47.30 uah.

-1.52 %

NAV*

1 069 556 uah.

-1.52 %

Laurus

PIC*

4.90484 uah.

+0.04 %

NAV*

19 103 816 uah.

+0.04 %

Value of indices

PFTS index

507.03

+0 %

UX іndex

1 384.54

+0 %

General SCHA stock

29 702 443 uah.

PIC and NAV on 28 March 2024 **

*PIC - Price Invest certificates, stocks, pension unit.

*NAV - Net Asset Value

**PIC and the NAV calculated at the end of the previous working day

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