In most major economies, GDP fell by the largest amount since World War II in the second quarter of this year. However, it is clear that the worst for the economy is behind us and investors are more worried about the future, which they look at optimistically despite the growth of covid-19 cases both in the US and in Europe. On the one hand, it is now clear that so draconian measures are not needed to control the virus, which were introduced by many countries at the beginning of the epidemic, it is enough to limit public events, wear masks in public places and transport, etc. On the other hand, it is clear that the situation with quarantine restrictions will drag on and economic recovery will take longer than previously expected. In July, there was no significant news from the main central banks, they have already poured enough liquidity into the markets and are still taking a wait and see attitude. Regarding fiscal stimulus, after a fierce debate, EU countries agreed to create a 750 billion euro fund that will provide loans and grants to countries affected by the coronavirus. In the US, meanwhile, on the contrary, negotiations between Democrats and Republicans about further stimulation have so far come to nothing. However, all this did not prevent the S&P 500 index from growing by 5.5% over the month, albeit with the strongest weakening of the dollar: the dollar index fell over the month by more than 4%. Such a drop in the dollar index has occurred only a few times in recent decades.

In Ukraine in the coming months, everything seems to be relatively calm. The coronavirus situation is tense, but not critical. After receiving tranches from the IMF, World Bank and placement of Eurobonds, Ukraine does not have an urgent need for financing in the next six months. The situation on foreign markets can still be called favorable, with prices for some of our export products, such as iron ore, generally holding above all expectations, given the global recession. Plus, the fall in the dollar is a big help to debtor countries like ours. However, the course of the country's development, chosen by the authorities, is hardly compatible with sustainable long-term economic growth and more and more resembles the times of Yanukovych. The absence or even a rollback of reforms, especially in the law enforcement system, more and more odious appointments, a sharp change in the government of the National Bank, the lack of an intelligible response to attacks on journalists or corruption scandals in the judicial system negatively affect the image of Ukraine among investors, therefore, expect a sharp increase in foreign investment in Ukraine not necessary. The IMF and other lenders may also be much less accommodating in the allocation of the next tranches, and if the economic external background or the situation with the coronavirus deteriorates, the country may again face the threshold of another crisis.