So far addressed the issue of aid to Cyprus, it's time to buy shares of Ukrainian and foreign companies, as well as for daring speculation with the euro
INVESTIDEI APRIL from Alexey Sobolev,
asset manager of AMC "Dragon Asset Management"
The main catalyst for the movement of markets in the next month will undoubtedly be news from Cyprus. Most likely, the situation will be resolved as early as this week, but the result can move the markets for a long time. As long as the uncertainty caused reasonable correction (price cuts - Ed.), Both on global markets, and the Ukrainian local market
These events resemble the story of the American banks in 2007-2008. Then the US government, in an attempt to show that no bank is too big for bankruptcy, has decided not to provide assistance to the bank Lehman Brothers. As a result, there was the biggest economic crisis since the "Great Depression." EU pushing Cypriots to accept his plan is quite risky, not only shows concern for the member states of the EU, and its debt load, as he wants to make a statement that it can not be blackmailed and for any help you need to pay. Fortunately, the proposed tax on deposits did not pass a vote in parliament, and possibly Cyprus finds more acceptable to the world community the option without a dangerous precedent writing off part of the deposit.
What does this mean for the stock in the short term? Investing in securities around the world right now is risky, however, judging by the behavior of the US stock market, as soon as the situation with Cyprus will be solved, we will have a strong rally. Therefore, the most daring can start buying both Ukrainian and foreign stocks now, while others suggest you make it a successful day of voting for the assistance package. As an alternative, you can use the certificates of public funds with the "blue chips". In any case, we do not recommend long hold securities, but rather to use a short-term opportunity.
Tension over Cyprus caused a slight rebound in the gold price. In the case of a negative scenario with a default of Cyprus or with continued uncertainty in short term the price may still grow 5-10%. However, do not think that even a default with the release of the Eurozone decisive impact on the long-term picture of the supply and demand for gold. Over time, the price will return to $ 1 600 per ounce, or even lower. In other words, if you increase the value of gold will continue - it may be a good opportunity for sales.
The situation with the opposite situation of the euro and gold. The growing panic over Cyprus has already led to a significant reduction in the European currency. And default could break a course of a further 3-5%. In this case, will be a lot of panic in the press about "contamination" effect, but I think over time, this talk will calm down - and the markets will return to previous levels. A good opportunity to earn some money.
Although the most likely option still is to save Cyprus from default. Open speculative positions in the financial markets to address this issue, I think quite risky.
Cyprus event significant impact on the hryvnia, and the hryvnia deposit rates are not expected. Probably, Ukraine will be difficult to find buyers for the new Eurobonds, as well as other countries with not too reliable financial situation.