April was definitely positive for financial markets. The US economy in the first quarter showed a growth rate of + 3.2%, the S & P index showed + 4% and closed at a historic high. However, almost all analysts agree that growth in the United States will slow down somewhat due to accumulated stocks and reducing the effect of Trump's tax reform. But inflation continues to remain low at 2%. The economic data from China, published in April, were, though not significant, but worse than March, however, China's GDP growth in the first quarter still amounted to an impressive 6.4%. In Ukraine, after Zelensky’s deafening victory at the presidential election, very little is still known about his team and program. But at least those statements that sound speak about unconditional support for continuing cooperation with the IMF and the reforms required by the fund, and this is exactly what investors now first of all want to hear. As a result, the NBU discount rate was reduced to 17.5%, the hryvnia exchange rate strengthened somewhat, prices for Ukrainian bonds rose slightly.
Presidential elections have passed, but the period of political uncertainty is far from over. Ukrainians have made it clear that they are voting against the establishment and it is logical to assume that people will be significantly renewed in parliament too. Many present parties will not get into parliament at all, new ones will probably be created. In the meantime, we are looking forward to the first appointments and decisions of the new president, judging by which it will be more likely to predict the political course. In Ukraine, meanwhile, the relative economic and financial stability is likely to continue with a slow economic growth. It is worth mentioning at the same time that this is as long as investors believe in the continuation of cooperation with the IMF, otherwise the situation may deteriorate sharply. We believe that next year is likely to accelerate economic growth and growth of stock indices.
