The escalation of rhetoric in the trade war between China and the US continued to generate a negative news background. The US threatens with new and new duties, China threatens with retaliatory measures and declares that it will not yield to pressure. In addition, Trump threatened to impose duties on European goods, particularly on cars, but so far this matter was postponed until the end of the talks. Nevertheless, while the attention of the press and analysts is focused on a possible deterioration of the economy in the future, companies in developed markets show record profits today, and this pushes the stock indices further up. The S & P index added almost 4% in August, the stock indices of Europe, the result of the UX + 2% index, also increased approximately. The truth remains the question of how representative and relevant the UX index is today, because the exchange still has not resolved the issue with software for the market of applications. Although now summer and parliament are on vacation, again our policy affects the economy. In July, delays in the payment of pensions attracted the market's attention to the uncomfortably low level of liquidity in the state treasury, which, along with regular payments to external creditors, was one of the factors that weakened the hryvnia and some decline in the quotes of Ukrainian bonds.

The Ukrainian economy continues its slow recovery due to both external factors, such as strong commodity markets, and domestic, such as the growth of domestic consumption. If it were not for politics, then this trend could not have been worried, but the year 2019 is coming, in which the country will need to survive presidential and parliamentary elections, as well as peak payments on foreign debts. And if the discussion of political issues can be postponed, monetary issues should be solved today. It is clear that it is possible to pay everything back at the expense of domestic resources next year, but it is extremely dangerous from the point of view of economic stability and growth. Therefore, you need to think about refinancing at least part of the debt. And in the markets of developing countries' bonds, the situation is not simple today, and at current rates the external capital market for Ukraine is actually closed. Therefore, the IMF remains the only source of new finance for Ukraine. And there is still no fifth tranche under the IMF program, the fourth one was over a year ago. So it's not surprising that the financial market is beginning to worry about Ukraine. but our officials have a glorious tradition to do everything at the last moment. Most likely this time it will be the same, and Ukraine will fulfill IMF requirements, which will allow enough financing for 2019 and avoid serious problems, but the volatility in the bond market is likely to grow.