In June, the recovery in stock markets continued, certainly not without the help of unprecedented stimulus from central banks. The S & P500 index added 1.8% and closed at 3100, while it is curious that traditionally defensive assets such as US bonds or gold also rose in price. In most countries, quarantine restrictions were gradually lifted, it is not surprising that the published data strongly suggests a rebound in the economy. At the same time, the dynamics of the spread of the virus is increasingly uneven: in Europe, new diseases are declining, in China they are generally near zero, and in the United States they are already significantly higher than the first peak. In conditions when the situation in the US is worse than other developed markets, and the scale of stimulus from the central bank, on the contrary, is greater - the dollar slightly decreases against other currencies, which improves the position of countries with large dollar debts. In Ukraine, the spread of the virus is not yet declining, but it does not yet have a threatening scale. It is worth noting the resignation of the head of the National Bank soon after receiving the tranche under the new IMF program, which was the culmination of the presidential administration's long-term pressure on the NBU, as a result of which Ukraine had to cancel a fresh open placement of Eurobonds for $ 1.7 billion, and the prices of the rest of Ukrainian Eurobonds fell.

The situation in foreign markets is better than it could be. Europe is recovering, China's GDP is already likely growing again, which supports prices, for example, for iron ore, which in turn is a significant item of Ukrainian exports. But inside, we seem to observe a rollback of reforms both around the National Bank and in other directions. After receiving new tranches from the IMF and other creditors, Ukraine has no urgent need for financing for some time, but there is definitely no hope for a rapid economic recovery and large-scale external investments. Especially when the president publicly declares that the hryvnia exchange rate is too high, and inflation is too low and essentially calls for emission, but at the same time he also says that loan rates are too high and need to be reduced (which is unrealistic with high inflation). We believe that the reputation of the hryvnia is not yet strong enough to engage in monetary stimulation, and this, together with conflicting monetary requirements, will likely lead to negative consequences. Therefore, we expect a slower economic recovery by the end of the year, if any, and lower our optimism about growth in 2021.